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Predictions for the Apple Tablet

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I feel like I need to join the crowd and toss out a bit of speculation about the rumored Apple Tablet.
  • The first version will target education (and other vertical markets, such as Hospitals) and cost too much to be successful in the consumer space. Think a thousand bucks, but with content deals through the large textbook providers.
  • Kindle-Style 3G will be present in the device for delivering apps, books and music, where the cost can be wrapped up in the price of the content. Web browsing, email, buying video, and anything else will require a Wi-Fi connection.
  • They will be tiered by internal storage capacity in order to capture consumer surplus, as always.
  • There will be a "Standard" (Smaller Storage, LCD Screen, Slower Hardware) and a "Pro" version (OLED Screen, Larger Storage, Faster Hardware) a precedent set by the division they have created between the iPhone 3G and 3GS.
  • It will be a larger version of the iPhone OS. No background tasks, apps will have to pass through the App Store.
  • An iPhone Simulator, which will allow iPhone native apps to be ran on the Tablet.
  • Apps can be built in ways that the release of one, single App will work natively on both the iPhone and the Tablet, or restricted to either platform.
The following will not be present in the tablet. Some of these are me being cynical, most are just based on watching Apple's behavior. I don't expect Apple to change the way they treat users in this update.
  • Front-facing camera. It can't be done with elegance at this point, so it won't be done.
  • Loss-leading. Apple won't sell it at a loss, even if they're hoping for content distribution deals. Their model has always been having the store experience drive the hardware sales, and not the other way around.
  • Mac OSX. It'll be a rev of the iPhone OS (Which will be renamed) and share many of the limitations of the iPhone. Don't expect paradigm shifts with the iPhone OS anytime soon, but look for evolution on both platforms over time.
  • Wi-Fi syncing. Even though the Zune has it, we won't see it in the first rev of the Tablet or in the next rev of the iPhone OS. You will still be connecting it to iTunes.
  • A rebuilt iTunes experience. iTunes needs to be rebuilt from the ground up, and management of your portable devices needs to be broken out. But that's not happening today.
I listen to a lot of people talk about the Tablet, and I think people have their hopes up too high. Everybody is wishing that Apple will release a Kindle-killer Tablet, but I don't think we'll see that in this round. I have a hard time believing Apple will release a device with the neccesary freedoms and price point to make it happen. I think what we'll be seeing here is the Macbook Air of the Tablet world. Yeah, it's gorgeous and thin, but is it competitive or innovative? I doubt it. But we'll see.

Filed under  //   Apple   Apple Tablet   Predictions   iPhone  
Posted January 21, 2010